Poll shows apps direct transition plans

Home-grown programs create homestead base; packaged apps more likely to migrate

The same factor which determined new HP 3000 sales is controlling the future of the customers’ transition plans, according to a 3000 NewsWire poll. Applications are guiding company decisions to migrate or homestead, but there’s another element in the mix: the softest IT economy in more than a decade, according to customers’ reports.

The poll was conducted on the one-year anniversary of HP’s announcement pulling out of the 3000 market. The NewsWire broadcast e-mail messages to 500 HP 3000 customers selected randomly. Companies responding totaled 116, for a 23 percent response rate. Customers identified their firms by name — no anonymous, Web-based replies were used in the poll’s results.

Slightly less than half of the respondents reported they intend to migrate off their HP 3000 systems, many following their application suppliers onto other platforms. Summit Information Systems and Amisys customers were leading the way in a timetable to migrate, since both suppliers have promised HP-UX versions of their MPE applications available this year.

But among those customers following packaged app providers, few expect to be off the HP 3000 before 2004. Greg Lanka of Stark State College in Canton, Oh. said “our current timeframe is a broad one, three to four years to be completely migrated.” The college uses some homegrown apps in addition to third party applications.

Economic choices are keeping some companies on the 3000 for now, even though they know they’ll move. One Ecometry customer plans a shift in 2005, but an IT manager said the cost of the transition is a roadblock for at least the next two years.

“Our CIO put the kibosh on migrating in 2003,” said the manager, who wanted his name withheld. He said, ‘I can think of a lot better ways we could spend $2 million right now.’ This is good, because it means we will be growing our business, and it gives us time to come up with a proper transition plan.”

ROC Software’s CTO Danny Compton said some of his customers expect to spend $1 million and more to recreate their computing environment during a migration, because it cost them that much over many years to ramp up their HP 3000s.

“There’s no way that money could have been in their budget,” Compton said. “It just dropped in out of the blue. It’s not like anybody could say they should have planned for this. It’s not practical.”

New alternatives

Some migrating sites know they will consider a move with their current application, but expect a better alternative to emerge after more study.

“We are evaluating the feasibility of following our application provider’s path toward Linux,” said Hal Shimmin, Information Services Director of California’s Ontario-Montclair School District. “I’d estimate the likelihood of that at less than 30 percent. We are also looking at Oracle-based alternatives.”

Amisys customers are also among those certain to migrate, but uncertain about where they’ll land. “We are considering migrating with our current application vendor, but at the same time looking to see what other vendors could provide,” said John Bawden, Technical Services Manager for QualChoice Health Plan. “We will not be doing anything until mid-2003 to see what the market is like. We may or may not stay with HP — depends on what the application vendor will support.”

Platform choices ran in HP-UX’s favor among the poll respondents who are migrating, but not by an overwhelming majority of those who identified their migration target. Of the 30 companies naming a platform, only one-third mentioned HP-UX. Running a close second was Windows NT/2000 with nine mentions. IBM and Sun’s Unix choices made up about 15 percent of the respondents’ selections.

Meanwhile, some migrating companies are stocking up on the latest HP 3000 models. Hertz Corporation is upgrading all 27 of its HP 3000 models to N-Class systems in 2003, “to get us the horsepower for the next three to four years,” said David Johnston.

Growing homesteading options

Remaining on the HP 3000 for the foreseeable future was the choice of 34 percent of respondents, who see less risk in homesteading than replacing well-tuned applications. With declining HP support being the major risk, companies are choosing self-support and third parties to fill the HP gap.

“Our current plans are to remain on our HP 3000 959-200 running MANMAN,” said Terry Simpkins, Applications Director for Measurement Specialties. “We are already self supporting for the HP 3000 hardware. We use HP’s response center support for MPE/iX, but that will be continually re-evaluated going forward to insure we are getting value for money. We adopted third-party support for MANMAN last year given the cost/value of support from CA — and SSA-Global Technologies has done nothing to change that decision.”

Even some customers planning to migrate before the end of the decade consider themselves homesteaders. “We will be on the 3000 platform well after 2006, and will probably maintain the system well after 2010, due to data retention issues associated with government contract work,” said Steve Ritenour of Harris Corp.

Homesteaders who don’t forecast the demands on their systems to grow said they expect to enjoy even greater cost advantage. John Wolff, the CIO of LAACO, said “I consider the HP 3000 quite supportable for at least the next 10 years. To that end we have been purchasing extra equipment in preparation for the future. As prices for equipment are expected to decline, due to a slowing demand, the price benefit for those staying on the HP 3000 will go up.”

A flat economy is making the homestead option look brighter for some. “We have neither the cash nor the staff to transition,” said an IT manager who wanted his name withheld. “All of our apps are homegrown, and there is no off the shelf application that will do what we need it to. We currently contract with third-party maintenance providers for both software and hardware on the 3000.”

The emerging opportunity in OpenMPE and emulator offerings is playing in conjunction with the slow economy. “We’re a small shop with little resources,” said Neda Bahrani of Superior Dental Care, Inc. “We’re moving to an A-Class, de-3000 our application and screens, etc. We will make our decision on our time frame on whether or not to go to Unix, or just stay.”

Homesteaders have their concerns, however. Bob McGregor of the Great Falls Public Schools in Montana said he expects to be running the schools’ MPE business software five years from now. The schools enjoy third party support from Beechglen, “and they so far have been outstanding.”

But McGregor is watching his third party software suppliers closely. “If the companies we have third party software from discontinue their 3000 line, what will that mean to us?” he asks. “What happens if we need to upgrade to a higher-performing box? Most of our third parties now seem to tie to the HPSUSAN or serial number.”

Among those who are homesteading as an interim step, a persistent bitterness toward HP remains. HP has cost itself business through its business decision about the 3000.

“Perhaps sometime in 2004 or 2005 we may consider changing systems,” said Mike Blackstone of Casco Products, who’s staying put on MANMAN. “At that point there will be no loyalty to HP and we will consider all options.”